About Safehouse
Live prediction market intelligence. We turn thousands of money-backed probability assessments into thematic signals delivered in real time.
Why we built this
Prediction markets are the fastest aggregators of distributed information. Unlike polls or expert panels, every data point is backed by real capital — participants are incentivized to be right, not loud.
But with 50,000+ markets across platforms, the signal is buried in noise. 95% of markets are irrelevant to any given theme. No one has time to monitor thousands of contracts across Polymarket and Kalshi looking for patterns.
Safehouse does that monitoring for you. We aggregate, classify, and compute — then deliver named signals when something is happening, before you know what it is.
When thousands of independent, money-backed probabilities move together, that's a stronger signal than any single forecast.
What we do
We ingest every active prediction market from Polymarket and Kalshi, classify them into thematic indexes using a multi-tier NLP pipeline, and compute real-time signal states that tell you the character of what's happening — not just a number, but whether markets are aligning, diverging, or experiencing turbulence.
Aggregate
Ingest every active market from Polymarket and Kalshi. Real money, real probabilities, updated every 5 minutes.
Classify
A 3-tier NLP pipeline — keywords, embeddings, LLM — filters 50,000+ markets down to the ones that matter for each theme.
Signal
Compute real-time signal states that tell you the character of movement — consensus shift, divergence, turbulence — not just a number.
Who it's for
Trading Desks
Signal state alerts via Slack or webhook. Know when crypto consensus shifts or geopolitical risk spikes — before it hits the tape.
Policy & Research
Track regulatory sentiment and geopolitical risk indexes in real time. Export data via API for your own models and reports.
Newsrooms
Monitor all themes from one view. When markets start pricing in a story, you see the signal before the headline exists.
Get in touch
Questions about the platform, methodology, or partnership opportunities — we're here.
Contact usWe welcome methodology feedback. If you're a quant, researcher, or market maker and have thoughts on our weighting formula, signal definitions, or classification pipeline — we want to hear from you.
Read the methodologyStart monitoring for free
7 curated indexes. Real-time signals. No credit card required.